E-Mini S&P 500
In yesterday’s ES report I wrote, “Any push into the 1611 to 1613.25 zone could be a selling opportunity early on. If price breaks and holds above 1613.25, we could see a run to a fill of the gap at 1622.75.”
The ES opened yesterday’s session with early strength and pushed right through the 1611 to 1613.25 zone noted above. The ES then converted 1613.25 as support and rallied to 18.50 to set the high for the day, and later sold off back toward the 1600.50 level that was noted as the day’s Fib extension target in the Key Levels ladder. Clearly, the 1600.50 level aligned with program traders, as prices were immediately bought up, which rallied the ES into the close.
We have a holiday-shortened session today, which means most traders will be on vacation. Not a whole lot is expected for the day, but we could see a little early action before the shooting stops ahead of Friday’s NFP Report.
There are several important reports that will come out today (see calendar below), which means there are still catalysts for today’s session. However, many players have already lightened their holdings heading into this week’s trading so as not to be affected by any key reports during the holiday week. So keep this in mind.
The ES continues to trade within the 1595 to 1620.50 range. More trading range activity is likely to occur within this zone heading into Friday’s market. A breach of 1595 opens the door to 1593.25, where programs may be tuned to buy the level on first test, so watch this zone closely. Use the two closest ADR targets for exits today, and look to take quick profits.
Watch these key economic reports for today’s price action:
7:15am CT: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
7:30am CT: Trade Balance
7:30am CT: Unemployment Claims
9:00am CT: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
9:00am CT: Treasury Sec Lew Speaks
9:30am CT: Crude Oil Inventories
11:00am CT: Natural Gas Storage
Here are the Key Levels and Targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ES) | |||||
| Jul 3, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,643.50 | nVPOC | ADR (5) | ONH | ONL | |
| 1,625.50 | Fib Ext | 22.75 | 1,608.50 | 1,594.00 | |
| 1,622.75 | Open Gap | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 1,618.50 | PD High | 68.25 | 1,620.50 | 1,593.25 | |
| 1,616.00 | LVN | ||||
| 1,615.75 | VPOC | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,608.75 | Pivot | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 1,608.00 | cVPOC | 1,622.44 | 1,597.13 | 1,661.50 | 1,569.31 |
| 1,607.25 | SETTLE | 1,616.75 | 1,591.44 | 1,644.44 | 1,552.25 |
| 1,601.00 | LVN | 1,611.06 | 1,585.75 | ||
| 1,600.25 | PD Low | 1,605.38 | 1,580.06 | ||
| 1,598.00 | Open Gap | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 1,593.25 | Fib Ext | ||||
| 1,597.25 | HVN | ||||
| 1,588.25 | LVN | ||||
| 1,581.50 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,570.25 | LVN | ||||
| 1,599.25 | nVPOC | ||||
E-Mini NASDAQ 100
In Friday’s NQ report I wrote, “The daily chart shows the NQ is beginning to show signs of weakness short term. I believe 2,910 is a level to watch for short term bias.”
The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 opened the day with early strength yesterday, but much like Monday’s market, prices topped out early, and dropped right into the 2910 level later in the day. Not coincidentally, prices managed to bounce nicely into the close off the 2910 level, which continues to hold as support in the short term.
In overnight trading, prices actually breached 2910 and briefly tested the 2900 level before retreating quietly back to 2910. Not that a whole lot is expected for today’s holiday-shortened trading session, but if 2910 gives way, look for another test at the overnight low of 2897 to 2900 level. A break will open the door to 2885.
Otherwise, today is likely to see range-bound trading between 2904 and 2917.75.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQ) | |||||
| Jul 3, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 2,986.25 | nVPOC | ADR (5) | ONH | ONL | |
| 2,956.25 | Open Gap | 41.5 | 2,924.75 | 2,897.00 | |
| 2,954.25 | Fib Ext | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 2,947.00 | LVN | 127.50 | 2,946.75 | 2,917.50 | |
| 2,941.25 | PD High | ||||
| 2,938.00 | cVPOC | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 2,933.50 | VPOC | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 2,925.50 | LVN | 2,948.88 | 2,904.00 | 3,045.00 | 2,851.13 |
| 2,924.00 | Pivot | 2,938.50 | 2,893.63 | 3,013.13 | 2,819.25 |
| 2,923.25 | SETTLE | 2,928.13 | 2,883.25 | ||
| 2,907.25 | PD Low | 2,917.75 | 2,872.88 | ||
| 2,907.00 | nVPOC | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 2,902.00 | Open Gap | ||||
| 2,898.25 | LVN | ||||
| 2,894.25 | Fib Ext | ||||
| 2,885.00 | HVN | ||||
| 2,876.75 | LVN | ||||
| 2,859.50 | Open Gap | ||||
| 2,855.50 | nVPOC | ||||
| 2,832.25 | nVPOC | ||||
Crude Oil
In yesterday’s Crude report I wrote, “The daily chart shows the 99 to 100 level has been firm resistance since breaking below this price zone in May 2012. Breaking this level will be a very tough task in the near term. But once broken, it could open the door to 105 and 110 above.”
Crude Oil is over $100. And not by a little – it’s currently sitting at 101.50 and put in an overnight high of 102.18.
Crude managed to break through the 99 to 100 threshold and rallied big yesterday, reaching our full ADR target of 99.65 in RTH trading, and rallied to hit our full ADR weekly bull target of 101.16. Our extended weekly bull target is 102.43, so watch this today for a potential test.
The overnight charts show Crude has put in a solid area of support at 100.86. If broken, this level will lead to an important retest of the 100 level. If price remains above this zone, look for another push toward the 102.43 level.
Obviously, I mentioned yesterday that a break through the 100 level opens the door to 105, and even 110. This is a medium term outlook for Crude, and you see how bullish it has become. From a longer term perspective, the weekly and monthly charts indicate a breakout from the 2.5-year coiled range could lead to much higher levels down the road, which I’ll discuss in a later report.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CL) | |||||
| Jul 3, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 103.36 | Monthly R2 | ADR (5) | ONH | ONL | |
| 100.41 | Fib Ext | 1.97 | 102.18 | 99.59 | |
| 99.96 | Monthly R1 | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 99.87 | PD High | 5.09 | 99.87 | 96.07 | |
| 99.42 | SETTLE | ||||
| 99.24 | Pivot | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 98.94 | VPOC | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 98.44 | PD Low | 102.05 | 101.20 | 101.16 | 96.05 |
| 97.92 | nVPOC | 101.56 | 100.70 | 99.89 | 94.78 |
| 97.15 | nVPOC | 101.07 | 100.21 | ||
| 97.90 | Fib Ext | 100.58 | 99.72 | ||
| 96.54 | LVN | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 96.52 | Open Gap | ||||
| 95.32 | cVPOC | ||||
| 93.45 | nVPOC | ||||
Gold
In yesterday’s Gold report I wrote, “As long as price remains above 1250, continued short term strength will be seen ahead, likely for a test of 1270 above…If these levels are rejected on first advance, we could see another round of selling in this commodity ahead. For now, we’ll have to see how Gold responds between 1250 and 1270.”
Gold broke back below the important 1250 level yesterday and actually converted it to short term resistance en route to a relatively quiet downtrending session, reaching lows of 1240.10 in the process. In overnight trading, Gold dropped as low as 1236 this morning, coming within two points of hitting the 38% Fib level as measured from the June 27 low of 1179.40 to the recent high of 1267. Since this pullback, Gold has rallied back above 1250 and is currently sitting at 1255.
Since the recent pullback in Gold was bought up very quickly, we could see new highs beyond the recent high of 1267, likely back toward 1300.40, which is the 38% Fib extension from the same measured period mentioned above.
There is a ton of overhead resistance, namely 1267.10, 1270, 1275.20, but if price can push through this zone then 1300 to 1301.3 could be the next target zone to watch, and potentially sell for another wave of weakness.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GC) | |||||
| Jul 3, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,292.40 | cVPOC | ADR (5) | ONH | ONL | |
| 1,292.70 | nVPOC | 42.7 | 1,258.70 | 1,236.00 | |
| 1,292.20 | Open Gap | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 1,275.80 | Monthly Pivot | 93.00 | 1,261.70 | 1,244.10 | |
| 1,275.30 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,275.20 | Open Gap | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,267.10 | LVN | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 1,262.50 | Fib Ext | 1,289.38 | 1,237.35 | 1,337.10 | 1,191.95 |
| 1,256.30 | PD High | 1,278.70 | 1,226.68 | 1,313.85 | 1,168.70 |
| 1,249.40 | VPOC | 1,268.03 | 1,216.00 | ||
| 1,246.90 | Yearly S3 | 1,257.35 | 1,205.33 | ||
| 1,246.60 | Pivot | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 1,243.30 | SETTLE | ||||
| 1,240.10 | PD Low | ||||
| 1,233.90 | Fib Ext | ||||
| 1,230.60 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,222.40 | Open Gap | ||||
| 1,222.30 | LVN | ||||
| 1,192.10 | nVPOC | ||||
Good luck and trade well.
Frank Ochoa
@PivotBoss