The March Toward 1650

E-Mini S&P 500

In Friday’s ES report I wrote, “Beyond 1630 is the major 1650 level, which rejected every advanced throughout the month of June. Clearly, a decision point in the charts is upon us.”

The E-Mini S&P 500 traded fairly strong during Friday’s market, but got a late-day rip that that really put it over the top when it rallied straight to 1628.50 just before the close, ending the session at 1628.25 right at the major upper trend line from the daily timeframe.

The 1630 level has been a focal point for the market during the recent advance, and the ES seems poised to test levels beyond this zone, as evid enced by the current pre-market high of 1638. The ES continues to push toward the important 1650 level for another test. As you know, this level had rejected every advance in June, and remains the key level to watch for the next major directional move in this contract.

If the ES can finally break and hold beyond the 1650 zone, we could see another bullish wave of strength ahead. Otherwise, another failure will lead to a retest of key support down below at 1595.

Given pre-market strength, today’s early game plan will be to sell early strength and buy into weakness. A pull-back into the 1621.50 to 1625 zone could offer the day’s first “buy the dip” opportunity. As long as price remains above this zone, I’ll be looking to buy pullbacks toward the day’s primary bull target of 1642. A failure below 1621.50 projects 1616.50 and 1611.25.

There are no important economic reports for today’s price action, but the market will be highly focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1pm CT, and Fed Chairmain Ben Bernanke’s speech at 3:10pm CT.

Here are the Key Levels and Targets for the current session and the week ahead

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ES)
Jul 8, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
1,643.50	nVPOC	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
1,636.25	Fib Ext	21.5	1,638.00	1,626.00
1,628.50	PD High	AWR (10)	WH	WL
1,628.25	SETTLE	63.50	1,627.25	1,627.25
1,621.25	LVN
1,618.75	VPOC	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
1,616.00	LVN	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
1,615.75	nVPOC	1,652.88	1,627.25	1,690.75	1,579.63
1,608.25	cVPOC/PD Low	1,647.50	1,621.88	1,674.88	1,563.75
1,602.00	nVPOC	1,642.13	1,616.50
1,601.00	LVN	1,636.75	1,611.13
1,600.50	Fib Ext	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
1,598.00	Open Gap
1,588.50	LVN
1,581.50	nVPOC
1,570.25	LVN
1,559.50	nVPOC

 

E-Mini NASDAQ 100

In Friday’s NQ report I wrote, “There is a major trend line that the market will be watching, which connects the highs that have occurred since May. This line hits somewhere between 2965 and 2970, and will be an important zone to watch.”

The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 opened Friday’s session with an early fill of the gap, and then proceeded to trade higher the rest of the session, closing the day at 2961 right at the major upper trend line from the daily timeframe.

This trend line remains a key technical pattern in the charts to watch for medium term direction. If the NQ can clear this line, there are good odds that we could see another test at 3000, which has been the major fulcrum between bulls and bears since June. If the bears can continue to control this line, we will likely see another wave of weakness ahead. Given recent strength, the bulls will likely need a near-term pullback to gas up the tank ahead of a test at 3000.

For today’s market, look to be a seller of early strength, and a buyer of weakness. Every pullback should be a buying opportunity toward the day’s primary bull target of 2993.50, so long as price remains above the 2945 to 2950 zone. A break below this zone opens the door to 2930 to 2935.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQ)
Jul 8, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
3,000.00	LVN	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
2,991.00	cVPOC	44	2,978.25	2,960.50
2,986.25	nVPOC	AWR (10)	WH	WL
2,984.00	LVN	123.00	2,956.50	2,956.50
2,973.50	Fib Ext
2,963.00	LVN	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
2,961.00	SETTLE/PD High	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
2,956.25	Open Gap	3,015.50	2,956.25	3,079.50	2,864.25
2,952.50	VPOC	3,004.50	2,945.25	3,048.75	2,833.50
2,947.00	LVN	2,993.50	2,934.25
2,927.75	PD Low	2,982.50	2,923.25
2,925.50	LVN	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
2,915.25	Fib Ext
2,907.00	nVPOC
2,902.00	Open Gap
2,898.25	LVN
2,885.00	HVN
2,876.75	LVN

 

Crude Oil

In Friday’s Crude report I wrote, “The support zone that is building out at 100.50 will become a very important reference point for Crude in the near term. If CL continues to hold above this zone, we could see a push toward the major upper trend line that connects the lower highs in the higher timeframes since 2011, which is roughly 103.80.”

Crude Oil continues to see major strength, and eventually hit the 103.80 level mentioned in Friday’s analysis. Remember, last week we also called for strength up to 105, and even 110, even Crude was able to clear the 99 to 100 price hurdle. And so far, we’ve seen prices as high as 104.12, so continued strength looks very likely.

The weekly chart shows price has reached the upper trend line of the coiled wedge that has built out over the last two years. This upper line will be the major test for this commodity. A true upside break from this pattern could project price levels well beyond the 110 zone, so keep an eye on this pattern.

Given recent strength, a near-term retracement to the downside is not out of the question. As long as price remains above the 99 to 100 zone, continued overall strength is likely.

Watch 102.66 as the day’s pivot, looking to be a buyer above, and a seller below, and keep an eye on the key targets below.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CL)
Jul 8, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
104.75	Monthly H5	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
104.03	Fib Ext	2.39	104.12	102.56
103.36	Monthly R2	AWR (10)	WH	WL
103.32	PD High	5.70	103.22	103.22
103.19	SETTLE
103.02	VPOC	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
102.30	LVN	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
101.46	PD Low	105.55	102.93	108.92	98.95
101.44	nVPOC	104.95	102.33	107.50	97.52
100.75	Fib Ext	104.35	101.73
100.52	LVN	103.76	101.13
99.96	Monthly R1	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
99.42	Open Gap
99.00	LVN
98.94	nVPOC
98.04	Open Gap
97.92	nVPOC
97.15	nVPOC

 

Gold

In Friday’s Gold report I wrote, “Short term, keep an eye on 1231.30, which is the current overnight low. A violation of this level opens the door to 1210.”

Another day, another big move for Gold, as it broke below our key short term support level of 1231.30 and dropped right to our target of 1210, netting another move of over $2,000 per contract.

Gold continues to remain extremely bearish, and the focus should remain to sell into strength in this contract. The monthly pivot range, seen below between 1250 and 1300 is the key zone to watch, as continued weakness will be seen so long as price remains beneath this zone of resistance.

With the Gold seeing strength in pre-market trading, it is not out of the question to see sells enter the market at some point, especially if price remains below 1240. Beyond 1240 opens the door to 1245 and 1251.80.

Look to be a seller of strength toward the day’s primary bear target of 1204.20.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GC)
Jul 8, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
1,292.70	nVPOC	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
1,292.20	Open Gap	44.3	1,237.40	1,214.40
1,275.80	Monthly Pivot	AWR (10)	WH	WL
1,275.30	nVPOC	111.60	1,212.70	1,212.70
1,275.20	Open Gap
1,267.10	LVN	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
1,260.00	LVN	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
1,255.10	Fib Ext	1,269.78	1,215.25	1,324.30	1,129.00
1,249.30	nVPOC	1,258.70	1,204.18	1,296.40	1,101.10
1,248.80	HVA	1,247.63	1,193.10
1,246.90	Yearly S3	1,236.55	1,182.03
1,241.90	PD High	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
1,233.10	cVPOC
1,230.60	nVPOC
1,222.60	LVN
1,222.40	Open Gap
1,213.20	VPOC
1,212.30	SETTLE
1,208.80	LVN
1,206.90	PD Low
1,193.70	Fib Ext
1,192.10	nVPOC

 

Good luck and trade well.

Frank Ochoa
@PivotBoss