Major Test at 1650 Ahead

E-Mini S&P 500

In yesterday’s ES report I wrote, “Given pre-market strength, today’s early game plan will be to sell early strength and buy into weakness. A pull-back into the 1621.50 to 1625 zone could offer the day’s first “buy the dip” opportunity. As long as price remains above this zone, I’ll be looking to buy pullbacks toward the day’s primary bull target of 1642.”

The E-Mini S&P 500 opened Monday’s session rather quietly, and basically traded within a very quiet trading range throughout the day. The 1632 level served as support and, although it took all night, price eventually hit the 1642 level. As a matter of fact, Floor traders have been watching the 1642 level very closely as a level that they feel must be held by the bears. Beyond 1642 forecasts another major test at the 1648.50 to 1650 zone of resistance, which has rejected every advance since June.

We’ve had quite an impressive rally from the 1553 lows, but price is beginning to approach major resistance, which could lead to a change in trend soon. Given that we are beginning to reach a period of slow summer trading, I can’t see price breaking through 1650 and rallying at this time, but the market is built to surprise.

The ES has reached an overnight high of 1645 and is currently trading 1641.75. If price opens the session above yesterday’s RTH high of 1639.50, it bodes well for early strength and a likely test at overhead resistance between 1648.50 and 1650. If price drops back into yesterday’s range, look for a test of value at 1635.50 and support at 1632. Below 1632 sees 1628.50, which could be a level that is bought on first test.

There are no important economic reports for today’s price action, but the market will be highly focused on Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Minutes at 1pm CT, and Fed Chairmain Ben Bernanke’s speech at 3:10pm CT.

Here are the Key Levels and Targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ES)
Jul 9, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
1,659.25	LVN	ADR (5)	ONH	ONL
1,643.50	nVPOC	20	1,645.00	1,635.75
1,642.50	Fib Ext	AWR (10)	WH	WL
1,640.00	LVN	63.50	1,645.00	1,626.00
1,639.50	PD High
1,635.75	SETTLE	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
1,635.00	VPOC	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
1,631.25	PD Low	1,660.75	1,635.00	1,689.50	1,597.38
1,628.25	Fib Ext	1,655.75	1,630.00	1,673.63	1,581.50
1,626.75	cVPOC	1,650.75	1,625.00
1,621.25	LVN	1,645.75	1,620.00
1,618.75	nVPOC	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
1,616.00	LVN
1,615.75	nVPOC
1,602.00	nVPOC
1,601.00	LVN
1,598.00	Open Gap

 

E-Mini NASDAQ 100

In yesterday’s NQ report I wrote, “Every pullback should be a buying opportunity toward the day’s primary bull target of 2993.50, so long as price remains above the 2945 to 2950 zone.”

The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 opened Monday’s RTH session with a gap up and was immediately hit with selling pressure that persisted throughout much of the morning, as the NQ led the broader market lower during the first part of the day. Price dropped right into our 2945 to 2950 zone of support, which held as the day’s lows and proceeded to push quietly higher into the close.

Overall, price remains quite bullish since rallying from the 2820 lows late last month, but it is clear that overhead resistance is beginning to creep back into the picture. The daily chart shows a thick zone of resistance between 2965 to 3000, which will be tough to penetrate on the first pass. If price cannot manage to press through 3000, then there is more upside to the May highs. However, this seems like a far stretch given the rally we’ve seen from lows, which has been void of any real pullback.

The 2950 level should remain intact today, which means we could see new highs within the current uptrend. Watch 2978 for signs of continued strength toward 2990. Otherwise, we could be in for another range-bound session ahead of Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech Wednesday.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQ)
Jul 9, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
3,000.00	LVN	ADR (5)	ONH	ONL
2,991.00	cVPOC	41.5	2,977.50	2,959.00
2,986.25	nVPOC	AWR (10)	WH	WL
2,984.00	LVN/Fib Ext	123.00	2,977.50	2,959.00
2,974.50	LVN
2,974.25	PD High	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
2,963.00	LVN	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
2,960.50	SETTLE	3,010.88	2,956.75	3,082.00	2,885.25
2,957.00	VPOC	3,000.50	2,946.38	3,051.25	2,854.50
2,956.25	Open Gap	2,990.13	2,936.00
2,949.75	LVN	2,979.75	2,925.63
2,948.75	PD Low	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
2,939.00	Fib Ext
2,925.50	LVN
2,907.00	nVPOC
2,902.00	Open Gap
2,898.25	LVN

 

Crude Oil

In yesterday’s Crude report I wrote, “Watch 102.66 as the day’s pivot, looking to be a buyer above, and a seller below, and keep an eye on the key targets below.”

Crude Oil held the day’s daily pivot throughout the session Monday, and each pullback above it became a buying opportunity as Crude held onto recent gains.

Crude has endured a major rally over the last two weeks of trading, as price has risen from 93 to 104 in short order. Given this massive expansion, Crude is beginning to hold and digest recent gains, forming a tight range from 102 to 104.15. Look for Crude to continue to build out within this range until a decisive breakout occurs. Such a breakout could lead to the next big move, likely to the upside.

From a pure technical stand point, I’d like to see Crude retest the 99 to 100 zone before the next wave of strength is seen. A test of this nature would do a lot for the health of the current bull move, but I’m not sure that 102 will give it up too easily. Watch the primary bull and bear targets for today’s trading.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CL)
Jul 9, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
110.00	Yearly R1	ADR (5)	ONH	ONL
104.75	Monthly H5	2.37	103.40	102.71
104.06	Fib Ext	AWR (10)	WH	WL
103.57	PD High	5.70	104.12	102.13
103.36	Monthly R2
103.34	LVN	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
103.12	SETTLE	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
103.07	VPOC	105.67	102.22	107.83	99.85
102.30	LVN	105.08	101.62	106.41	98.42
102.27	PD Low	104.49	101.03
102.20	LVN	103.90	100.44
101.78	Fib Ext	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
101.44	nVPOC
100.97	Open Gap
100.52	LVN
99.96	Monthly R1
99.42	Open Gap
99.00	LVN
98.94	nVPOC
98.04	Open Gap
97.92	nVPOC

 

Gold

In yesterday’s Gold report I wrote, “With the Gold seeing strength in pre-market trading, it is not out of the question to see sells enter the market at some point, especially if price remains below 1240. Beyond 1240 opens the door to 1245 and 1251.80.”

Gold opened Monday’s RTH session with a large gap up and basically traded sideways in a very tight range throughout the session. However, in after hours trading, Gold got the break through the 1240 level and rallied to 1258.70 before pulling back ahead of today’s RTH open. The key 1240 level opened the door to another big time move in this commodity, but the biggest move may be still to come.

Gold has held fairly steady after rebounding from the 1179 lows two weeks ago. As a matter of fact, the 60-minute chart shows price is coiling within a large triangle pattern that could offer a solid breakout opportunity ahead. We’re likely to see further development of this pattern in the days ahead, but an eventual breakout could spark the next 85-point move in this chart.

The major level to watch for medium term strength is 1260, as a push through this zone paves the way to a test at 1300. If Gold cannot hold above 1240, we could see a return trip to value at 1233 and the 1222 LVN.

Keep in mind, with the weekly low of 1214.40 seemingly locked in for the week, we have a high probability upside weekly target to watch at 1298.10.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GC)
Jul 9, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
1,292.70	nVPOC	ADR (5)	ONH	ONL
1,292.20	Open Gap	39.3	1,258.70	1,232.00
1,275.80	Monthly Pivot	AWR (10)	WH	WL
1,275.30	nVPOC	111.60	1,258.70	1,214.40
1,275.20	Open Gap
1,267.10	LVN	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
1,260.00	LVN	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
1,249.30	nVPOC	1,281.13	1,239.05	1,326.00	1,175.00
1,248.90	Open Gap	1,271.30	1,229.23	1,298.10	1,147.10
1,248.80	HVA	1,261.48	1,219.40
1,246.90	Yearly S3	1,251.65	1,209.58
1,237.40	PD High	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
1,235.00	SETTLE
1,234.20	VPOC/cVPOC
1,230.60	nVPOC
1,229.00	PD Low
1,222.60	LVN
1,222.40	Open Gap
1,213.20	nVPOC
1,212.30	Open Gap

 

Good luck and trade well.

Frank Ochoa
@PivotBoss