PB View
While we knew the markets would likely trade quietly heading into a busy week of economic and Fed news, Monday’s trading was rather dismal outside of a few fifteen minute spurts.
Tuesday’s action is expected to be much the same. Since the market is not likely to break out ahead of key news this week, look to play reversals at key zone with clear profit objectives in mind.
Gold and Crude seem to be on the verge of big moves, and we have clear patterns to watch for those markets. However, these markets could be in “wait and see” mode, as well. Price action should pick up midway through the week.
Cheers!
Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market
Follow me on Twitter: @PivotBoss
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E-Mini S&P 500
In yesterday’s ES report I wrote, “In the near term, keep an eye on the overnight low of 1680.75. A violation through this zone could target 1677.50 and 1674.”
The E-Mini S&P 500 futures opened Monday’s session with an early rejection at 1686 and broke through 1680.75 en route to our first target at 1677.50 before bottoming out at 1676.50 and rallying quietly to 1684. The ES closed the day very quietly, and we could see another day or two of muted trading behavior ahead of the Fed on Wednesday before any real movement is seen.
The ES continues to hold within a clear two-week trading range, which could offer the next major directional move soon. Short term, watch 1688 and 1676 for range expansion, but look to play reversals within this zone.
The current overnight low of 1682 projects a primary bull target at 1692.50, while the current overnight high of 1688 indicates a primary downside target at 1677.50.
Today’s scheduled economic news:
8:00am CT S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y
9:00am CT CB Consumer Confidence
Here are the Key Levels and Targets for the current session:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ESU3) | |||||
| Tue, Jul 30, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,708.25 | Monthly R2 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 1,697.75 | Monthly H5 | 14.00 | 1,687.25 | 1,682.00 | |
| 1,693.00 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 1,690.00 | Fib Ext | 28.25 | 1,688.00 | 1,676.50 | |
| 1,686.25 | PD High | ||||
| 1,682.75 | SETTLE | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,682.25 | VPOC | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 1,677.50 | cVPOC | 1,699.50 | 1,680.25 | 1,704.75 | 1,666.81 |
| 1,676.50 | PD Low | 1,696.00 | 1,676.75 | 1,697.69 | 1,659.75 |
| 1,674.25 | LVN | 1,692.50 | 1,673.25 | ||
| 1,674.00 | 13PEMA | 1,689.00 | 1,669.75 | ||
| 1,672.75 | Fib Ext | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 1,672.00 | LVN | ||||
| 1,670.00 | HVN | ||||
| 1,666.50 | LVN | ||||
| 1,665.50 | LVN | ||||
| 1,664.25 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,662.00 | LVN | ||||
| 1,656.00 | HVN | ||||
| 1,652.25 | LVN | ||||
| 1,648.75 | Open Gap | ||||
E-Mini NASDAQ 100
In yesterday’s NQ report I wrote, “The daily and weekly charts shows price has basically coiled the last two weeks and is likely due for a breakout move soon. This week could be the catalyst week that spark the next directional move in this index, so watch 3020 and 3090 for higher timeframe movement.”
The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 futures continue to hold within the large, two-week trading range that continues to develop. Monday’s trading was rather quiet, but price did respond off the 3060 level several times before ending the day relatively flat. The 3060 level continues to be a great short term fulcrum for the market, so continue to watch this level closely.
The 60-minute chart shows price continues to hold above gap support at around 3025. This is the major source of support to watch in the NQ from a higher timeframe perspective. Up top shows firm resistance at 3087, which is where the NQ double-topped a couple of weeks ago.
The current pre-market low of 3065.50 forecasts bull targets at 3085.50 and 3092.25, while the downside targets are 3066 and 3059.25.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQU3) | |||||
| Tue, Jul 30, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 3,119.00 | Monthly R2 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 3,096.00 | Monthly H5 | 26.75 | 3,077.50 | 3,065.50 | |
| 3,086.75 | Fib Ext | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 3,085.00 | LVN | 67.25 | 3,078.50 | 3,056.75 | |
| 3,078.50 | PD High | ||||
| 3,074.75 | HVN | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 3,069.50 | VPOC | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 3,068.00 | SETTLE | 3,098.94 | 3,064.13 | 3,124.00 | 3,028.06 |
| 3,058.75 | LVN | 3,092.25 | 3,057.44 | 3,107.19 | 3,011.25 |
| 3,056.75 | PD Low | 3,085.56 | 3,050.75 | ||
| 3,049.50 | nVPOC | 3,078.88 | 3,044.06 | ||
| 3,048.50 | Fib Ext | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 3,046.00 | LVN | ||||
| 3,039.50 | 13PEMA | ||||
| 3,034.00 | cVPOC | ||||
| 3,027.50 | LVN | ||||
| 3,008.00 | nVPOC | ||||
| 2,997.00 | Open Gap | ||||
| 2,995.00 | nVPOC | ||||
| 2,991.00 | HVN | ||||
Crude Oil
In yesterday’s Crude report I wrote, “Crude is currently testing this upper line at 105.20, which could give us early directional bias should a break or rejection occur…If prices remain capped at 105.33, look for a push back toward 104.53.”
Crude Oil got an early rejection off the upper trend line mentioned yesterday at 105.33, which set up a quick decline to 104.53 during the session. Price has continued to slide and is currently testing levels below 103.60, which hasn’t been seen in three weeks.
The 60-minute chart shows a downtrending channel has formed, with clear upper and lower boundaries. Yesterday’s rejection off the upper line indicates a move down to the lower boundary of the channel ahead, which currently projects price to about 102.00, which is also the 34-period PEMA in the daily timeframe. If price makes it to this zone, I expect buyers to enter the market on first test, as this could be a swing buying opportunity.
One thing is for sure, Crude is coiling up within a very tight 3-day range, which forecasts a short term breakout opportunity could be ahead. If price continues to hold below 104, we could see a very sharp move ahead upon a breakout from this range. Price should remain short term bearish until it can break and hold above 105.50. Any pull-back to 104.50 could be a selling opportunity today.
The primary bear target today is 103.11, and the primary bull target is 104.88.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CLU3) | |||||
| Tue, Jul 30, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 110.00 | Yearly R1 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 108.48 | LVN | 1.91 | 104.54 | 103.45 | |
| 107.71 | Monthly R3 | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 107.50 | LVN | 4.32 | 105.37 | 103.56 | |
| 106.25 | LVN | ||||
| 106.11 | cVPOC | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 105.85 | Fib Ext | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 105.52 | nVPOC | 105.84 | 103.59 | 107.88 | 102.13 |
| 105.35 | PD High | 105.36 | 103.11 | 106.80 | 101.05 |
| 104.80 | VPOC | 104.88 | 102.63 | ||
| 104.54 | SETTLE | 104.41 | 102.15 | ||
| 104.05 | LVN/PD Low | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 103.58 | LVN | ||||
| 103.55 | Fib Ext | ||||
| 103.52 | Open Gap | ||||
| 103.00 | HVN | ||||
| 102.27 | LVN | ||||
| 102.00 | 34PEMA | ||||
Gold
In Friday’s Gold report I wrote, “Keep an eye on 1338 to 1340.50 today, as this zone could provide early resistance. A break through this zone forecasts 1342.2 and 1348.70, while a rejection indicates a test back toward 1325 and 1318.50.”
Gold traded right into the 1338 level in pre-market trading yesterday, and was never able to rise beyond this price, which became the high of the day. Price eventually dropped into the first target at 1325, and slid into the last target at 1318.50 during pre-market trading this morning, capping a great move away from 1338.
The daily chart shows price continues to hold beneath the major 1350 resistance level, and also continues to hold beneath the 55-period PEMA at 1344. If price continues to hold beneath these key levels, we could see another swing sell-off ahead, especially if support between 1308 and 1310 is taken out.
Yesterday’s trading led to an Inside Day pattern in the daily timeframe, so today’s session could see some decent range expansion if yesterday’s range is broken and held, so watch 1338.10 and 1322.60 for a breakout opportunity.
The pre-market low of 1317.50 found buyers en masse this morning, so this level may prove to be a solid source of support today. If 1317.50 continues to hold, look to play to targets at 1330.30 and 1336.70. The overnight high of 1329.60 forecasts downside targets at 1316.80 and 1310.40.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GCQ3) | |||||
| Tue, Jul 30, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,385.50 | cVPOC | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 1,371.40 | Monthly R1 | 25.6 | 1,329.60 | 1,317.50 | |
| 1,357.80 | Monthly H4 | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 1,348.70 | LVN | 56.70 | 1,338.10 | 1,317.50 | |
| 1,345.10 | LVN | ||||
| 1,344.00 | 55PEMA | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,338.30 | Fib Ext | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 1,338.10 | LVN | 1,349.50 | 1,316.80 | 1,374.20 | 1,295.58 |
| 1,335.40 | nVPOC | 1,343.10 | 1,310.40 | 1,360.03 | 1,281.40 |
| 1,335.00 | PD High | 1,336.70 | 1,304.00 | ||
| 1,329.50 | cVPOC | 1,330.30 | 1,297.60 | ||
| 1,328.50 | SETTLE | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 1,326.20 | PD Low | ||||
| 1,325.50 | LVN | ||||
| 1,322.90 | Fib Ext | ||||
| 1,319.70 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,316.70 | LVN | ||||
| 1,315.00 | 34PEMA | ||||
| 1,310.00 | LVN | ||||
| 1,309.00 | 50% Fib | ||||
| 1,301.30 | Monthly TC | ||||
| 1,299.00 | LVN/62% Fib | ||||
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