On September 19 I wrote, “Watch key resistance at 108.15. A break beyond that level has clear air to 109.65…If we break below 107.20, we could see a retracement back to 106.75, and as low as 105.82.”
NOTE: I have switched over to analyzing and trading the November Crude contract (CLX3).
Wow, the 108.15 level was huge. I knew it was a big level to watch, but the rejection that we saw off this level yesterday was simply fantastic, as Crude has already moved about 3 points off this level as of this morning after breaking through 107.20 support.
Studying the 60-minute chart even further shows 108.15 has been an important line in November Crude since August. The fact that the bulls did not take out 108.15 speaks volumes, in my opinion. You see, 108.15 was the last spot on the chart that both the bulls and bears could do business. Taking out 108.15 would have forced the bulls to commit to the long side, as a break through this zone coincides with a break through the top of the large triangle.
In essence, if 108.15 is taken out (or 108.25 for good measure), we are likely to see a major rally ahead, likely to 114 to 116. Again, the fact that the bulls didn’t commit tells you more development is likely to occur within the range until direction is decided.
However, the bears took the ball and ran, without hesitation. Price is now approaching major support between 104.40 and 105, which will be important to watch for today’s auction. Right now, the bears control the tide. The bulls need to get price back above 106 to get this thing headed higher.
Short term, Crude is positioned lower below 106.11, which happens to be the overnight high. Below this price projects ADR bear targets at 105.10 and 104.60, while the current pre-market low of 105.18 suggests upside targets at 106.25 and 106.76.
Also, watch 104.90. Big time key level.
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CLX3) | |||||
| Fri, Sep 20, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 110.70 | LVN | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | Range |
| 109.65 | PGM LVL | 2.02 | 106.11 | 105.24 | 0.87 |
| 108.15 | PGM LVL | AWR (10) | WH | WL | Range |
| 107.79 | PD High | 5.10 | 108.76 | 104.94 | 3.82 |
| 107.37 | CVPOC | ||||
| 106.73 | RTH MP | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 106.14 | VPOC | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 106.12 | ETH MP | 107.77 | 105.10 | 110.04 | 104.94 |
| 106.00 | PGM LVL | 107.26 | 104.60 | 108.77 | 103.66 |
| 105.75 | SETTLE | 106.76 | 104.09 | ||
| 105.66 | PD Low | 106.25 | 103.59 | ||
| 104.90 | PGM LVL | ||||
| 104.40 | LVN | ||||
| 103.75 | PGM LVL | ||||