5-Year Pattern Suggests 34.79 for Crude Oil

Key Target at 34.79

Crude Oil’s next stop may be 34.79, which is the 100% measured move target from the 5-year trading range that developed from 2010 through 2014, seen in the weekly chart below.

PivotBoss Crude Oil Analysis

The 5-year range spans from 76.31 to 117.83 and boasts a measurement of 46.34 points, which puts the 100% measured move target at 34.79, as forecasted from the edge of the range.

So far, expansion from the range has been swift and powerful, seeing price drop from the edge of the range at 76.31 to the 75% expansion target at 45.17 in a matter of just eight weeks.  That’s a sell-off of over 31 points in just 2 months, and more downside could be ahead.

Crude Oil closed Monday’s trading at 45.15, just 2 ticks below the 75% expansion target of 45.17, which is a key level to watch moving forward. Failure to hold above 45.15s will be the first clue to further weakness ahead.

Bears Defend MCVAL at 46.24

Crude Oil has traded within the boundaries of a narrow 3-week trading range, which spans from 44.68 to 51.72, seen in the daily chart below. The volume profile shows that a clear D-shaped profile has emerged, which indicates a balanced range, and suggests future expansion. After balance comes imbalance, so we could soon see expansion from this 3-week range.

PivotBoss Crude Oil Analysis

Bears are currently defending the bottom of value of the micro composite volume profile at 46.24 for a shot at expansion into the next monthly expansion target at 39.85, with an overall eye toward the larger 5-year target at 34.79.

Keep in mind, if bulls are able to run the stops through 46.50, we could see price return to value at 48, which is likely to be defended by bears for another shot at downside expansion.

5-Day VPOC is Offered

In the 10k volume bar chart (seen below), you’ll notice that bears are currently defending 5-day VPOC at 46.34, which has been offered each of the last two sessions. As a matter of fact, the zone from 46.34 to 46.50 has been offered by bears looking for range expansion into 41.16 and 37.64. Again, above 46.50 opens the door to a retest of MCVPOC at 48.

PivotBoss Crude Oil Analysis

There could be another 10 points of weakness ahead for Crude Oil, and the recent 3-week range suggests the move could be swift, so watch the key levels closely.

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
Author, Secrets of a Pivot Boss

PivotBoss | Own the Market
PivotBoss Premium | Premiere Analysis for Traders
PivotBoss Masters | Premiere Training for Traders

______________________
Start Your 2-Week Trial to Premium Today!