Tag Archives: L3

PB FUT

Trade Plan and Analysis for the E-Mini S&P 400

The E-Mini S&P 400 has rallied nearly 50 points since the impressive reversal near 950 early last week, which has led to great “buy the dip” opportunities. Here’s how I see tomorrow’s market playing out, along with my trading plan..

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Golden Pivot Zone

The 5-minute chart of the E-Mini S&P 400 futures contract shows a Higher Value relationship has formed using the pivot range. This relationship is the most bullish relationship, and usually indicates that any morning weakness into the range will be seen as a buying opportunity by responsive buyers.

However, what makes this Higher Value relationship more powerful than normal is the fact that it also contains the L3 pivot from the Camarilla Equation, which is typically seen as the “buy” pivot. When a Camarilla pivot lies within the pivot range, a major source of support is present, which I affectionately call the Golden Pivot Zone (GPZ).

The GPZ offers a super strong “zone” of support. A GPZ is a great source of support for various reasons, the first of which is the fact that the zone was identified as support using two different pivot-based formulas, thereby introducing true confluence.

Also, the call-to-action to buy at the support zone is greater, since traders of Floor Pivots and traders of the Camarilla Equation will essentially “double” the buying interest at that zone of support.

The Trade Plan

Given the recent run of strength and the Higher Value setup, I’ll be looking to “buy the dip” in the MCM2 tomorrow, so long as price opens above 995. If price opens above 995, I’ll be looking to buy into morning weakness between 993 and 994.5.

E-Mini S&P 400 ($MC_F)

The fact that the MC has a current 10-day Average Daily Range (ADR) of 14 points means that I’ll be looking to trade to a target of between 1,003.5 and 1,005, depending on where the morning low is located, essentially using 75% of the ADR. Obviously, I’ll update this soft target tomorrow morning after I see where the market printed the overnight high and low.

If price opens the session below 993, all bullish bets are off. If this occurs, I’ll look to shift my entry to the short side, with entries set to between 994.5 and 996, and a potential target somewhere in the 986.5 to 988 zone.

Let’s see how this one plays out!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

Strength Ahead for the E-Mini NASDAQ 100?

The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 futures contract has endured a string of weakness in recent days, as price dropped nearly 200 points from the September high. However, this contract may be headed higher tomorrow. Here’s why..

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Confluence of Support

The daily chart of the NQ shows price has responded to an area of the chart that offers an abundance of support for the month of September – 2,110 to 2,130. As a matter of fact, there is a confluence of pivot-based support in this zone, with the monthly Point of Control (POC) sitting at about 2,130 – red dotted line – and the monthly L3 Camarilla level sitting at around 2,124 – solid green line.

E-Mini NASDAQ 100 ($NQ_F)

As you can see, buyers have stepped in each time this zone has been tested in September. In addition, a well-developed, upward-sloping channel has formed over the last two months. The lower boundary of the channel, which was tested Friday, coincides perfectly with pivot-based support. This three-way area of confluence could lead to another swift rally within the boundaries of the channel in the days ahead.

Narrow Value Area

The 15-minute chart shows price is coiling, as an Inside Value relationship pattern barely missed from forming by just a tick or two. However, despite not having a textbook Inside Value pattern, the NQ still looks poised for a big move.

As you may recall, an Inside Value formation develops when the upcoming Value Area is completely inside the prior day’s Value Area.

A narrow Value Area for the upcoming session has also developed, which forecasts breakout/trending price behavior for Monday’s market.

E-Mini NASDAQ 100 ($NQ_F)

The Game Plan

If price opens the session above 2,190, look to buy anywhere between 2,185 and 2,210. Any weakness into this zone to begin the day should be seen as a buying opportunity.

There are two targets to watch for – the open gap at 2,246.50 and the naked POC at 2,302.50.

If price happens to gap down below 2,170, you might look to sell into strength between 2,185 and 2,205, with a target at Thursday’s low at 2,144.50.

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Let’s see how the NQ plays out tomorrow!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss.com

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

$USO Looks Bullish

The United States Oil Fund ETF ($USO) has dropped sharply over the last two weeks of trading, selling off from $38.00 to $34.60. However, $USO may be on the verge of a nice Turkey Day bounce heading into the end of the week. Read More..

L3 Support

The daily chart of $USO shows price has fallen sharply to $34.60 from the $38 level over the last two weeks. However, price is beginning to respond to the $34.60 support level, which corresponds perfectly with the monthly L3 Camarilla support level. This level is traditionally seen as a bullish pivot level and tends to lead to key price reversals back toward H3 resistance, which is $35.75 in this case.

United States Oil Fund ($USO)

You’ll also notice that a bullish Wick Reversal signal has fired on the current candlestick right at L3 support. This bit of confluence also strengthens this area of support, as buyers already seem to be entering at current levels.

If price remains above $34.50, look for price to rally to between $35.75 and $36.30 over the next week of trading.

Let’s see how this plays out!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss.com

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

Action Levels for the ES for 7/20

The ES played extremely well off our Action Levels yesterday, as two decent sell opportunties led to moves of 12 and 9 points. Given yesterday’s relatively quiet trading day, we could see another explosive breakout/trend day upon us. Let’s take a look at the levels to watch for today’s trading.

Breakout Ahead?

The E-Mini S&P 500 built out a clearly-defined consolidation throughout yesterday’s trading – which was to be expected after Friday’s wide range of price movement. The fact that the consolidation has formed at lows is indicative of another wave of selling pressure.

Add to this the fact that an Inside Value relationship has formed in the Camarilla Equation, and we could see a breakout very soon from this range. If price opens beyond 1,057 or 1,071, we could see a very nice move in the direction of the gap – although a bearish break is the most likely option.

E-Mini S&P 500 $ES_F

Action Levels

If price opens at or below 1,060, I will be looking to see any pull-back from 1,060.25 to 1,064. This range encompasses key pivots from the pivot range, the Camarilla Equation, and the Value Area.

Since we are currently in a near-term downtrend, a pull-back to this zone should be sold, especially if price opens beneath this range.

E-Mini S&P 500 $ES_F

The next major pivots below current price are at 1,055.75 and 1,043, which represent the H3 Cam level and the bottom of the pivot range, respectively, for the month of July.

If 1,055.75 gives way, we could see a drop to 1,043 ahead. While we may not reach this support level today, this should be a target to keep an eye on.

There’s also a naked VPOC down below at 1,039.

These are my levels to watch for today’s trading action – let’s see what happens!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss.com

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

Action Levels for the ES

After Friday’s decline, the ES could be on the verge of much more selling pressure ahead. Take a look at the action levels that I’ll be looking to play today.

Since Friday’s market may have triggered a new short term downtrend, I’ll be looking to sell into any early strength today. Namely, any move into the 1,070 zone offers a highly confirmed area to become a responsive selling participant.

E-Mini S&P 500 $ES_F

Looking at the 15-minute chart of the ES, you’ll notice that the H3 Camarilla pivot will be roughly 1,070.75 for Monday’s market. Moreover, this pivot level resides within the day’s central pivot range.

This combination of pivots within a trending market can offer a huge area of support or resistance, which is why I’ll be looking to sell the market if price reaches anywhere from 1,066.25 to 1,072.75 – and especially the 1,069.50 to 1,070.75 zone.

If price reacts to the 1,070 area, then L3 becomes the target to watch at 1,055.50, which could be reached anytime in the next two days.

Keep in mind that Friday’s wide range of price movement could lead to a day of trading range activity. However, if price continues to seek lower value, these action levels could prove profitable.

These are my action levels to watch…what are yours?

Let’s see what happens!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss.com

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss