Tag Archives: Triangle

PB FUT

A NASDAQ 100 Breakout?

The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 has been coiling within a rather tight range over the last two months, which could pave the way to an impressive breakout soon. Here’s why…

PivotBoss

Spring-Loaded

The daily chart of the E-Mini NASDAQ 100 futures contract shows price has been coiling like a spring since late October, which means we could see a potential breakout opportunity soon. Any time price trades in this type range contraction phase, we usually see a phase of range expansion ahead.

As a matter of fact, the coiled price action actually resembles an ascending triangle with a clearly defined resistance level of 2,700, which has held firmly over the last two months. Traditionally speaking, ascending triangles tend to break to the upside, but a breakout in either direction can occur.

E-Mini NASDAQ 100

Also, the triangle pattern has a backend measurement of about 200 points, which means we could see a move of around 200 points once a breakout occurs.

PEMA Breakout Setup

FREE PivotBoss eBookThe daily chart also shows that a PEMA Breakout setup has developed, whereby the three pivot-based EMAs (13, 34, 55) flatten out right at the apex of the coiled pattern.

This setup lets you know that buyers and sellers are at an impasse, and to expect a resolution soon via a breakout.

You can learn more about this pattern, and others, in my free ebook HERE.

Levels to Watch

The overall long term trend direction is up and the triangle pattern has developed in an ascending manner, which both point to an upside break ahead.

Obviously, the NQ will need to see a breakout through 2,700 if further strength is to be seen. If a breakout does indeed occur, we could see a slow and steady rally into the close of the year.

However, a breakout in either direction can occur, and both can be traded just the same. Keep an eye on 2,620 for a potential downside break. Such a break could spark a retest of prior lows at around the 2,500 level ahead.

Look for price to continue to develop within the triangle until a clear and decisive breakout occurs.

Let’s see how this one plays out!

Happy Holidays (and Savings)!

PivotBossWe at PivotBoss have had an amazing year, and we want to send a giant “Thank You!” to all of our fans that have helped to make 2012 a success. Let’s make 2013 even better!

In keeping with the holiday spirit, we’ve slashed prices on ALL OF OUR PRODUCTS for our biggest sale ever!

Also, if you buy in December, you’ll be invited to The PivotBoss 2013 Market Outlook webinar in January!

CLICK HERE to view our Holiday Brochure!

 

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

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PB Index

Major Breakout Ahead for S&P 400

The S&P MidCap 400 looks poised for a major breakout ahead – one that could be felt through the end of the year and beyond. Here’s more…

Secrets of a Pivot Boss

Massive Triangle

The weekly chart of the S&P 400 Index shows price has been winding up within the boundaries of a large developing triangle pattern since Q4 of 2010.

This ascending triangle pattern could be the spark that leads to the next major breakout in this index, which speaks volumes about the broader market, as well.

Most of the major market indexes have formed similar patterns, or are butting right up to long term resistance, so a breakout in this index could correspond very well with breakouts across the market.

S&P 400

Bullish Break Expected

Ascending patterns typically break to the upside, so we’ll be watching resistance very closely for signs of a bullish violation ahead. Moreover, the pattern has formed at the overall highs of the recent four-year uptrend, which is also quite bullish.

Keep in mind, while I am bullish on this pattern, a breakout in either direction should spark aggressive initiative participation, so keep an eye on both sides of the triangle, as a breakout in either direction will certainly pack some punch.

Targets

Since the backend of the pattern measures 287 points, we can expect a move of about the same size once a breakout occurs. That is, look for the market to move about 287 points in the direction of the break, which after Monday’s close amounts to a 28% move.

Watch the 2011 high at 1018.65 for signs of a bullish breakout. Since the yearly R1 Floor pivot is 1021.3, we’ll definitely want price to clear this hurdle, as well. The Bull target looks to be around 1,305, which actually corresponds well with the yearly R3 pivot.

For a bearish break, look for a violation through 880, with additional confirmation through the bottom of the yearly pivot range at 875. The Bear target forecasts to about 595, which looks to be the yearly S2 pivot.

Given the duration of the development of the triangle, the resulting breakout could span between 6 and 12 months, so we could be in for quite a trend ahead.

Let’s see how this plays out long term!

Speaking Engagement!

I’ll be speaking for the Austin Association of Financial Traders (AAFT) in Austin this Tuesday! Come out and see me!

I’m ditching the typical presentation slides in favor of live analysis in front of the audience – so this should be fun!

To learn more about the meeting details, visit http://pivotboss.com/2012/09/07/live-analysis-for-aaft/.

I hope to see you tomorrow!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

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PB Index

S&P 500 to 1,550?

I wrote an article earlier this year that predicted the S&P 500 Index could be headed to 1,550 in the upcoming six to nine months. After a blistering start to the year, the S&P 500 has charged steadily higher and is now testing the critical 1,370 level, which we’ll want to keep a close eye on in the days ahead.

ADR Method

Massive Triangle

The daily chart of the $SPX shows the index opened 2012 with a solid breakout from the large triangle pattern at 1,270. Since the back end of the triangle measures 280 points, it’s conceivable that an upside target of 1,550 could be reached down the road. After all, the way this triangle pattern had coiled in the preceding nine months was a dead giveaway that fireworks could be seen in this index.

S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

1,370 Resistance

The fact that price has rallied out of this pattern for 10 straight weeks indicates the bulls have clearly taken over.

However, the next major area of resistance at 1,370 is an important level of contention. You see, the 5-year chart of the index shows 1,370 has been a major level of both support and resistance during this time. The fact that price was firmly rejected at 1,370 in 2011 (the high for the year, by the way) indicates the market will proceed to this level with caution ahead of the next major move.

S&P 500 Index ($SPX)

If the market is going to find near-term weakness, I believe it will be around the 1,370 zone.

1,550 Remains the Target

However, even if the market sells off from current levels, continued strength is likely to be seen ahead.

As a matter of fact, a retracement would probably be healthy for the index at this point. Also, we’re only two months into a six to nine-month prediction, so there’s plenty of time for the S&P 500 to reach all-time highs in the 1,550 to 1,565 zone, despite any pull-back that may occur.

While near-term weakness could be seen in the days ahead, the S&P 500 should continue to remain bullish so long as it maintains its stance above 1,250 to 1,270.

ADR Method Webinar

You may have already heard, but tomorrow I’m giving a live ADR Method webinar for those of you that buy the DVD course by Feb 28.

The ADR Method helps you forecast intraday targets with amazing precision – up to 87% accurate in the backtest period!

What’s great about this method? It’s based on price, which means regardless of the market’s current volatility or behavior, this method will continue to work.

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See you soon!

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

The ADR Method

PB Index

Major Triangle Brewing in the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is clearly winding up for the next major market phase, as indicated by the massive triangle that continues to develop. Here’s more..

280-Point Triangle

The daily chart of the S&P 500 shows the index has been developing a large, symmetrical triangle over the last 9 months. This triangle measures 280 points, which means a breakout could lead to a move of about 280 points.

S&P 500 Index

We will continue to watch both the upper and lower trend lines of the pattern for a potential violation. While these lines will dynamically update, the current levels to watch are: 1,270 up; 1,155 down.

FREE 50-Page eBook

Weekly Chart

The weekly chart of the last three years shows price has continued to trend higher after the 2009 lows, and continues to honor important pivot-based support.

Once price closed above the yearly pivot range (the three pink lines) to end the year in 2009, price has held above the pivot range each of the last two years, which honors the rules of pivot-based trend analysis. Every pull-back to the pivot range in a bullish trending market becomes a buying opportunity.

So far, buyers have defended the pivot range over the last two years.

S&P 500 Index

The 280-point triangle is developing above the 2011 yearly pivot range, which is very bullish for long term direction. If price continues to hold above the pivot range, and especially above the S1 support level of 1,091.50, we could see a major rally toward 1,550 over the next 6 to 9 months.

If price breaks the triangle pattern to the downside, and violates the 1,100 level, this index could be in trouble, as a target of about 875 could be seen.

Which will it be?

I’m bullish on this pattern, but let the market decide direction, then jump along for the ride.

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss.com

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss

PB FUT

Short and Long Term Gold Outlook

Gold has been extremely bullish the last three years, but has been virtually stagnant the last few months, which could lead to an impressive move ahead. Here’s a short and long term Gold outlook that could prove very rewarding..

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Short Term Outlook

The Daily chart of the Gold futures contract shows price has been rather flat the last three months, with a net loss of about 4% during this time. However, price looks poised to push higher the next two weeks.

More to the point, a new buy signal has developed after Tuesday’s trading, which indicates a near-term push to prior highs at around 1,800 could be seen. This buy signal was generated using multiple pivot-based moving averages and calculating the separation (or distances) between them.

In essence, each signal indicates a pull-back opportunity within an established trend.

Gold Futures (GC)

If price remains above the bottom of the central pivot range (shown in pink), we are likely to see a swift advance to 1,800, with the potential to exceed 1,900 in the months ahead.

Signal Accuracy

This signal tends to be very accurate, especially during fluid, trending markets – like the one seen in Gold.

As a matter of fact, the last five signals since January have all been highly profitable, with a couple of signals doing exceedingly well. If the trend holds true, the current signal could prove profitable, as well.

The Daily chart below shows how the previous signals have fared in Gold over the last year.

Gold Futures (GC)

Long Term Outlook

The Daily chart shows a large, developing triangle pattern, which could hold the key to the next major move in this commodity.

As a matter of fact, the triangle forecasts a move of about 390 points – which is huge! Therefore, once a breakout from the pattern occurs, we could see a significant 390-point move in the direction of the break.

Gold Futures (GC)

The fact that the triangle has formed within the existing bull trend usually indicates a continuation. Therefore, the most likely breakout will be to the upside. If price breaks through 1,800, look for a continuation toward a forecasted target of about 2,190 in the months ahead.

A failure through the bottom of the pattern at 1,665 forecasts a target of 1,280, which would be quite a collapse.

Look for further development of the pattern, and wait for a decisive breakout. This pattern could be highly rewarding.

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss.com

Follow Frank on Twitter: http://twitter.com/PivotBoss