PB View
The market continues to trade near the overall highs of the year, which continues to show how impressively bullish this market has been. My focus remains to buy pullbacks within the corresponding bull trends of each of the markets I follow. The NASDAQ remains a major index to follow, as its tightly-coiled range suggests a major breakout move could be around the corner.
The market is getting very close to another key decision point in the charts, as buyers and sellers will need to start putting their bets on the table with regards to a break or rejection of key resistance levels above.
Cheers!
Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market
Follow me on Twitter: @PivotBoss
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This daily report is currently free and open to the public, as I gather feedback and ideas ahead of a formal subscription offering later in the summer. If you have any feedback regarding anything in the report (good or bad) please provide it below in the comments section. Your comments will definitely help shape the report for the better. Thank you!
E-Mini S&P 500
From yesterday’s report, “The fact that the S&P was unable to rise above the 1697 level last week indicates more downside price discovery ahead. Short term, watch the 1681 to 1683 zone.”
The E-Mini S&P 500 futures opened the day with a gap down Monday morning, but rallied back above 1681 and held the 1683 level throughout the day. It wasn’t exciting, but 1683 allowed for a few short term buy opportunities, and remains a key level to watch.
As a matter of fact, if the ES drops into the 1682 to 1683 zone early in the day, you’ve got to consider buying with a shot at reaching 1696.
If 1680 gives way, there are some major support zones down below to watch, like 1673 and 1665 to 1666. But as long as price remains above 1680, there’s a good shot to retest price levels above 1700, although 1697 continues to be a barrier that must be dealt with.
The current pre-market low of 1686.75 forecasts bull targets at 1693 and 1696.25, while the overnight high of 1694 suggests bear targets at 1687.75 and 1684.50.
Today’s scheduled economic news:
6:30am CT NFIB Small Business Index
7:30am CT Core Retail Sales m/m
7:30am CT Retail Sales m/m
7:30am CT Import Prices m/m
9:00am CT Business Inventories m/m
Here are the Key Levels and Targets for the current session:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ESU3) | |||||
| Tue, Aug 13, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,722.50 | Monthly R1 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 1,713.00 | Monthly H3 | 12.75 | 1,694.00 | 1,686.75 | |
| 1,705.00 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 1,702.50 | Open Gap | 26.00 | 1,294.00 | 1,275.25 | |
| 1,702.50 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,701.75 | HVN | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,696.00 | LVN | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 1,695.25 | Monthly VAH | 1,702.69 | 1,687.63 | 1,301.25 | 1,274.50 |
| 1,689.75 | VPOC | 1,699.50 | 1,684.44 | 1,294.75 | 1,268.00 |
| 1,688.25 | PD High | 1,696.31 | 1,681.25 | ||
| 1,687.25 | SETTLE | 1,693.13 | 1,678.06 | ||
| 1,687.00 | cVPOC | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 1,687.00 | 13PEMA | ||||
| 1,678.75 | PD Low | ||||
| 1,673.00 | LVN | ||||
| 1,671.50 | Monthly TC | ||||
| 1,670.00 | HVN | ||||
| 1,669.00 | 34PEMA | ||||
| 1,665.50 | LVN | ||||
| 1,661.00 | LVN | ||||
E-Mini NASDAQ 100
From yesterday’s report, “Further development could occur within the boundaries of the current 7-day trading range, which spans from 3090 to 3140, but eventually a breakout could spark some decent range expansion.”
The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 futures filled the Monday morning gap and rallied early in the session. However, price basically traded quietly into the close after topping out at 3129.50 in the first 90 minutes of the day. Price continues to build out within a tightly-coiled range in the 60-minute timeframe, which could spark a major breakout and expansion move ahead.
Overall, if price continues to hold above 3090 to 3100, much more upside could be seen. As a matter of fact, if (and this is a big IF) the August low of 3090.75 remains the monthly low, we could see an upside bull target at 3211.50 by the end of the month. On the other hand, a violation of 3090.75 could forecast a monthly low of 3019.50. Right now, price is coiling within the large range, but a breakout has huge implications.
Short term, watch resistance between 3135 and 3140. There is a ton of overhead resistance in this zone, so we could see another wave of weakness back toward 3112 to 3117.25. Any drop into this zone should be seen as a short term buying opportunity.
The current pre-market low of 3123.25 forecasts bull targets of 3137.25 and 3144.25, while the overnight high suggests bear targets at 3123.50 and 3116.50.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQU3) | |||||
| Tue, Aug 13, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 3,160.50 | Monthly R1 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 3,141.00 | Monthly H3 | 28 | 3,137.50 | 3,123.25 | |
| 3,140.00 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 3,132.25 | HVN | 65.25 | 3,137.50 | 3,094.25 | |
| 3,129.50 | PD High | ||||
| 3,124.00 | VPOC | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 3,116.00 | cVPOC | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 3,114.75 | SETTLE | 3,158.25 | 3,123.50 | 3,159.50 | 3,088.56 |
| 3,110.00 | HVN | 3,151.25 | 3,116.50 | 3,143.19 | 3,072.25 |
| 3,106.00 | LVN | 3,144.25 | 3,109.50 | ||
| 3,104.00 | PD Low | 3,137.25 | 3,102.50 | ||
| 3,100.00 | 13PEMA | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 3,093.00 | HVN | ||||
| 3,090.00 | LVN | ||||
| 3,075.00 | HVN | ||||
| 3,069.50 | nVPOC | ||||
| 3,062.75 | LVN | ||||
| 3,034.00 | HVN | ||||
Crude Oil
From yesterday’s report, “If price can remain above the 105 level, we could see another round of strength higher toward 107.50, and even 109. However, this will depend on how the market responds to 105.75, which has become a clear pivot in the charts.”
Crude Oil futures held the important 105 level and put in a low of 105.03 Monday, which sparked a nice round of buying that eventually pushed price to an overnight high of 107.20. The levels in Crude have been very clean lately, which has created some great opportunities due to the increase in volatility, as well.
I bought Crude at 105.75 when the level held on a pullback and scaled out of half the position at 106.16, and took the final half off at during the wee hours at 106.73. Both of these targets were key ADR levels after the targets were adjusted for the new low of 105.03.
Crude continues to trade within a clear trading range that spans from 102.22 to 109, seen in the daily chart. Crude is now trying to hold above the midpoint of the range at 105.75. If this level can hold, and especially 105, we could see another rise toward the top of the range between 108 and 109 soon.
Short term, look for early weakness in Crude down to 105.75 to 106.08. If this range is defended by buyers, we could see another swing high beyond 107.50. A violation of 105.75 will indicate another test of the important 105 level below.
The current high of 107.20 suggests bear targets at 106.07 and 105.51, while the current low of 105.95 forecasts bull targets at 107.08 and 107.65.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CLU3) | |||||
| Tue, Aug 13, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 110.00 | Yearly R1 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 108.68 | Monthly H3 | 2.26 | 107.20 | 105.95 | |
| 108.48 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 108.00 | LVN | 5.21 | 107.20 | 105.03 | |
| 107.59 | nVPOC | ||||
| 107.55 | Monthly VAH | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 107.27 | LVN | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 106.83 | HVN | 108.78 | 106.07 | 110.24 | 103.29 |
| 106.46 | PD High | 108.21 | 105.51 | 108.94 | 101.99 |
| 106.11 | SETTLE | 107.65 | 104.94 | ||
| 105.96 | HVN | 107.08 | 104.38 | ||
| 105.92 | VPOC | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 105.34 | cVPOC | ||||
| 105.03 | PD Low | ||||
| 104.89 | HVN | ||||
| 103.97 | LVN | ||||
| 103.09 | HVN | ||||
| 102.64 | nVPOC | ||||
| 102.25 | LVN | ||||
Gold
From Friday’s report, “As long as Gold can remain above 1296, further upside momentum is likely in the near term. Today’s current low of 1313.50 projects bull targets at 1331.10 and 1337.”
Gold saw another rally Monday, as prices pushed through each of our bull targets above, and eventually topped out at 1343.70, which was just 8 ticks past our extended ADR target of 1342.90. Gold continues to remain highly bullish, but is now holding beneath major resistance between 1348 and 1350, which will be the next major barrier to higher prices. If price should ever get above 1350, it would only be a matter of time before a test at 1400 is seen.
Short term, watch the 1322 support level for early directional bias. If price remains above this level, we could see another rally toward resistance at 1348. Otherwise, a violation could send prices back toward the midpoint of the recent rally, which currently lies at 1307.80.
The current high price of 1341 forecasts bear targets at 1322.20 and 1316, while the recent low of 1322.20 suggests bulls targets at 1335 and 1341.20.
Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GCQ3) | |||||
| Tue, Aug 13, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,371.80 | Monthly R1 | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | |
| 1,351.20 | Monthly H3 | 25 | 1,341.00 | 1,322.50 | |
| 1,348.40 | Monthly VAH | AWR (10) | WH | WL | |
| 1,343.70 | PD High | 48.00 | 1,343.70 | 1,313.50 | |
| 1,339.70 | VPOC | ||||
| 1,334.20 | SETTLE | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,328.60 | HVN | BULL | BEAR | BULL | BEAR |
| 1,326.70 | PD Low | 1,353.75 | 1,328.50 | 1,361.50 | 1,307.70 |
| 1,316.70 | LVN | 1,347.50 | 1,322.25 | 1,349.50 | 1,295.70 |
| 1,310.50 | HVN | 1,341.25 | 1,316.00 | ||
| 1,309.90 | nVPOC | 1,335.00 | 1,309.75 | ||
| 1,300.90 | Monthly TC | *BOLD indicates primary objectives | |||
| 1,296.30 | LVN | ||||
| 1,291.70 | HVN | ||||
| 1,284.10 | nVPOC | ||||
| 1,270.50 | LVN | ||||
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I am trying to decide how to buy pullbacks with options. If you expect the stock price to drop to a support level, at what price do you buy the option to correspond to the stock price pullback? Thanks I am still studying you great book.
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