Gold Futures (GCZ3)
Short Term
Gold put in a spike high at 1323.30 early this morning and then broke below the 1316.50 pivot, sending prices into a steady decline down to 1307. It seems the HOD for the day is in for GC at 1323.30, which indicates more selling is ahead. If Gold remains below 1316.50, look for price to reach the 1301.60 and 1294.40 ADR targets. A break above 1313 would suggest a retest of 1316.50 and 1321.40.
Medium Term
Gold continues to honor the boundaries of the down trending channel, with 1330 holding firmly as the upper line. If the bulls cannot get Gold back above 1330, we are likely headed for another swing sell-off, likely to the primary weekly target at 1284.90. Above 1330 would suggest a rally to 1352.90.
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GCZ3) | |||||
| Wed, Oct 9, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,375.00 | PGM LVL | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | Range |
| 1,355.00 | PGM LVL | 28.9 | 1,323.30 | 1,307.00 | 16.3 |
| 1,350.00 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | Range |
| 1,345.00 | LVN | 61.20 | 1,330.80 | 1,307.00 | 23.8 |
| 1,340.00 | PGM LVL | ||||
| 1,330.80 | PD High | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,327.70 | VPOC | BULL | BULL | ||
| 1,325.00 | PGM LVL | 1,343.13 | 125% | 1,368.20 | 100% |
| 1,324.90 | SETTLE | 1,335.90 | 100% | 1,352.90 | 75% |
| 1,323.10 | Dual MP | 1,328.68 | 75% | ||
| 1,323.00 | HVN | 1,321.45 | 50% | ||
| 1,316.50 | PGM LVL | ||||
| 1,315.40 | PD Low | BEAR | BEAR | ||
| 1,306.00 | PGM LVL | 1,308.85 | 50% | 1,284.90 | 75% |
| 1,300.00 | LVN | 1,301.63 | 75% | 1,269.60 | 100% |
| 1,285.00 | HVN | 1,294.40 | 100% | ||
| 1,265.00 | LVN | 1,287.18 | 125% | ||
Crude Oil Futures (CLX3)
Short Term
Crude Oil traded in a very quiet range during RTH trading Tuesday, and continues to hold below the important 104 to 104.50 zone of resistance. Given Tuesday’s tight range, we could see decent range expansion today. Short term, watch 103.20 as support. A break below 103.20 suggests a move to 102.94 and 102.53, while a break above 103.75 would suggest a retest of 104, with a shot at 104.40.
Medium Term
Crude Oil continues to coil in the 60-minute chart, as the 12-day trading range continues to show signs of contraction. Eventually, a breakout from this range will spark the next major swing move, so continue to watch this pattern closely. Above 104, and especially 104.50, would suggests a rally toward the primary monthly bull target at 107.66, while a violation through 102 would indicate weakness down to the primary monthly bear target at 97.78.
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CLX3) | |||||
| Wed, Oct 9, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 109.00 | LVN | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | Range |
| 107.00 | HVN | 1.63 | 103.75 | 103.18 | 0.57 |
| 106.40 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | Range |
| 105.00 | Key LVL | 4.72 | 103.94 | 101.86 | 2.08 |
| 104.30 | LVN | ||||
| 104.08 | PD High | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 104.00 | Key LVL | BULL | BULL | ||
| 103.71 | VPOC | 105.22 | 125% | 106.58 | 100% |
| 103.71 | RTH MP | 104.81 | 100% | 105.40 | 75% |
| 103.52 | SETTLE | 104.40 | 75% | ||
| 103.46 | ETH MP | 104.00 | 50% | ||
| 103.34 | PD Low | ||||
| 102.88 | CVPOC | BEAR | BEAR | ||
| 102.20 | PGM LVL | 102.94 | 50% | 100.40 | 75% |
| 101.05 | PGM LVL | 102.53 | 75% | 99.22 | 100% |
| 100.35 | LVN | 102.12 | 100% | ||
| 101.71 | 125% | ||||
E-Mini S&P 500 (ESZ3)
Short Term
The ES got a sharp bounce off the 1646 low on the opening print of after hours trading and rallied 12 points from the low to 1658. However, 1658 has become a key pivot to watch for further strength, as the offers continue to pour in at this level. A break above 1658 suggests strength to 1663. If 1658 remains a lid, look for downside targets at 1650.50 and 1646.75.
Keep in mind, Tuesday saw a very bearish day with a wide price range compared to average. Therefore, we could see range-bound trading today, or a modest rise into 1663, as the market is likely to digest yesterday’s move.
Medium Term
The ES remains in a clear downtrend since topping out at 1726.75, and has broken key support levels along the way, with the most recent being the 1663 level. While price may retest 1663 to 1667, a failure to rise above this zone indicates further weakness ahead, likely down to the 1632.75 primary monthly bear target.
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ESZ3) | |||||
| Wed, Oct 9, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 1,726.75 | YTD High | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | Range |
| 1,713.00 | LVN | 15.50 | 1,658.25 | 1,647.50 | 10.75 |
| 1,702.50 | LVN | AWR (10) | WH | WL | Range |
| 1,700.00 | PGM LVL | 34.00 | 1,679.50 | 1,646.00 | 33.50 |
| 1,686.50 | HVN | ||||
| 1,681.00 | CVPOC | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 1,675.00 | PGM LVL | BULL | BULL | ||
| 1,673.00 | LVN | 1,666.88 | 125% | 1,680.00 | 100% |
| 1,671.25 | PD High | 1,663.00 | 100% | 1,671.50 | 75% |
| 1,667.00 | LVN | 1,659.13 | 75% | ||
| 1,659.75 | RTH MP | 1,655.25 | 50% | ||
| 1,658.75 | ETH MP | ||||
| 1,657.25 | VPOC | BEAR | BEAR | ||
| 1,653.75 | HVN | 1,650.50 | 50% | 1,654.00 | 75% |
| 1,650.00 | PGM LVL | 1,646.63 | 75% | 1,645.50 | 100% |
| 1,649.50 | SETTLE | 1,642.75 | 100% | ||
| 1,648.25 | PD Low | 1,638.88 | 125% | ||
| 1,625.00 | PGM LVL | ||||
E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQZ3)
Short Term
The NQ is holding above the Tuesday low of 3144.25 and has formed a tight overnight range from 3153 to 3164. Use this range for early directional bias. A break above 3164 should target 3173.25, while a break below 3153 should target 3146 and 3137.
Keep in mind, after wide ranging trend days the market tends to become range-bound, so don’t expect fireworks today. Instead, look to play to closer profit targets, as the market digests recent price activity.
Medium Term
The NQ took a big tumble Tuesday after breaking down from the tightly coiled pattern that we’ve been watching. This breakdown led to a major retest of the 3150 area of support, which has held for the time being. There’s not much support between 3150 and 3100, so a flush through 3140 could easily spark another slide down to 3100, with a shot at reaching the next support zone at 3050.
However, we know the market has been extremely resilient the entire year, and the current sell-off will begin to look cheap for eager bulls. Continue to watch 3150 as the major pivot here. If price holds 3150, we could see a retest of 3200 above. Otherwise, we see 3100.
| PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQZ3) | |||||
| Wed, Oct 9, 2013 | |||||
| KEY LEVELS | ADR TARGETS | ||||
| 3,251.25 | YTD High | ADR (10) | ONH | ONL | Range |
| 3,250.00 | LVN | 36.00 | 3,164.00 | 3,146.25 | 17.75 |
| 3,223.00 | CVPOC | AWR (10) | WH | WL | Range |
| 3,220.00 | PGM LVL | 71.00 | 3,232.75 | 3,144.25 | 88.50 |
| 3,211.00 | PD High | ||||
| 3,200.00 | PGM LVL | DAILY TARGETS | WEEKLY TARGETS | ||
| 3,195.00 | LVN | BULL | BULL | ||
| 3,180.00 | HVN | 3,191.25 | 125% | 3,215.25 | 100% |
| 3,179.50 | ETH MP | 3,182.25 | 100% | 3,197.50 | 75% |
| 3,177.75 | RTH MP | 3,173.25 | 75% | ||
| 3,156.00 | LVN | 3,164.25 | 50% | ||
| 3,150.00 | VPOC | ||||
| 3,150.00 | PGM LVL | BEAR | BEAR | ||
| 3,149.75 | SETTLE | 3,146.00 | 50% | 3,179.50 | 75% |
| 3,144.25 | PD Low | 3,137.00 | 75% | 3,161.75 | 100% |
| 3,110.00 | Key LVL | 3,128.00 | 100% | ||
| 3,100.00 | PGM LVL | 3,119.00 | 125% | ||