From Aug 6, 2015: “Look for bears to defend a retest of 4608.75 for a move into 4532 and 4496.50.” NQ bears defended two intraday tests of our 4608.75 sell level, which ultimately sparked a sell-off into 4532 and 4500. Look for bulls to defend 4496.50 for a return to 4600-30. Failure to hold above 4496.50 opens up a move into 4467.50 and 4420.
The NQ rallied through the previous week’s high price of 4608.75, but eventually sold off to close back below this level, suggesting failed range expansion may have occurred. Look for bears to defend a retest of 4608.75 for a move into 4532 and 4496.50.
From July 09, 2015: “Bears continue to have the upper hand and are currently offering the previous week’s close of 1163.50 for a shot at breaking support through 1145, with targets at 1131.40 and 1119.50.” Gold finally reached our downside targets in one fell swoop, and bottomed out at the 1080 level. The recent impulse move from 1205.70 to 1080 could be the beginning development of a new key range. Bulls want to defend a pullback to 1186.50 for a shot at returning price to between 1142.80 to 1145.
The NQ continues to produce higher highs and higher lows, but appears to be losing steam. We may see another session of new highs into 4700, but any tail event should be seen as a sell opportunity for a return to 4550, which could in turn offer an opportunity for bulls to defend.
The ES finally reached the top-end of our target zone today, which spans from 2118.50 to 2126, which suggests profit-taking and new short positions are currently taking place. Failure to hold above 2118.50 will imply a likely move back to value at 2087.25, with a shot to see 2055.25 again. Keep in mind, we still may see a move into 2130s before a high is found and a reversal occurs.
