Crude Oil finally saw a close outside of the tightly-coiled 9-day range, which suggests further downside expansion into our primary weekly ADR bear target of 48.70. Keep an eye on 51.21. Failure to hold below that level will suggest a return to 53.83.
From July 09, 2015: “Bears continue to have the upper hand and are currently offering the previous week’s close of 1163.50 for a shot at breaking support through 1145, with targets at 1131.40 and 1119.50.” Gold finally reached our downside targets in one fell swoop, and bottomed out at the 1080 level. The recent impulse move from 1205.70 to 1080 could be the beginning development of a new key range. Bulls want to defend a pullback to 1186.50 for a shot at returning price to between 1142.80 to 1145.
Crude Oil bulls are defending the bottom of the 7-day trading range between 50.50 and 51.00, with targets at 52.23 and 53.50. Failure to hold above 50.50 opens up a move into 49, which will likely be defended upon first test by responsive bulls.
The ES is approaching the top of resistance between 2120 to 2126, while the NQ has far surpassed its 4550 resistance level. Look for bulls to defend pullbacks in the short term. Crude Oil is holding at the bottom of the 8-day trading range, which offers a responsive buying opportunity. Failure to hold above 50.50 has clear air to 49.
COT is forming a swing reversal setup off double-top resistance at 10.60. Bears are defending prices at 10.50, with targets at 9.82 and 9.60.
