Thursday’s session could be a big one. Here’s my analysis, with key levels to watch…
Inside Value
The 15-minute chart of the E-Mini S&P 500 shows an Inside Value relationship has developed, which indicates we could see some decent movement in Thursday’s session.
The Inside Value setup occurs when the current day’s value area develops completely within the value area from the prior session, which usually indicates that price is coiling and ready to break out.
If price opens the session with a gap outside of range and value, there’s a good shot that we’ll see trending behavior in the direction of the gap to begin the session, likely for the first few hours of the day, if not the entire day.
As it currently stands, the ES is set to open with a gap up, but this may change with economic news being released at 7:30 am CT.
Volume Analysis
The 10-day volume profile shows the ES has a few areas of interest to watch. First, a significant LVA has developed from 1,509.50 to 1,511, which is currently serving as clear resistance. This zone will attempt to stifle any buyers. However, if a break through this zone occurs, we could be pushing to significant new highs by the weekend, as the 1,516.25 to 1,525 zone could come into play. See why below…
Should 1,511 reject any advances, we’ll need to watch the following areas of support: 1,502.75 (weekly pivot and 3-day pivot), 1,502.50 (weekly VWAP), 1,498.50 to 1,500.00 (LVA support), and 1,496.75 (10-day VPOC).
ADR Analysis
The current 10-day ADR is 13.58, which we’ll round down to 13.50. Given that the current overnight low is 1,504, our initial bull target is 1,517.50. Since the overnight high is currently 1,511, our initial bear target is 1,497.50. Of course, we will adjust these accordingly, as the overnight high and low become official.
As far as a weekly target, the 10-week average weekly price range has been 34.75. With the current low for the week being 1,490.25, I’d expect the high for the week to be reached between 1,516.25 and 1,525 sometime before the weekend.
Keep in mind, the monthly R1 Floor Pivot is 1,520.
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Let’s see how this one plays out!
Cheers!
Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market
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