A Big Day for News

PB View

Today is a big day for news, as the market will absorb news from the ADP report, Advance GDP, Chicago PMI, and the Fed. Clearly, how the market perceives this news will affect price movement heading into Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll number, which will likely kick off the next major move in the market.

We may see some early movement across the indexes and commodities this morning, but trading is likely going to slow down drastically as we head into the Fed at 1pm CT. As such, any early directional movement will likely be a short term fade opportunity, as the market is unlikely to break out and trend during the morning trade.

The afternoon is likely to pick up in volatility, and could provide a clues for a larger swing move ahead.

Cheers!

Frank Ochoa
PivotBoss | Own the Market

Follow me on Twitter: @PivotBoss
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E-Mini S&P 500

In yesterday’s ES report I wrote, “Short term, watch 1688 and 1676 for range expansion, but look to play reversals within this zone. The current overnight low of 1682 projects a primary bull target at 1692.50, while the current overnight high of 1688 indicates a primary downside target at 1677.50.”

The E-Mini S&P 500 futures opened Tuesday’s session with an early rejection of the 1688 level, which was sold heavily en route to a sell-off back to our primary bear target of 1677.50. The ES went one tick past our target and proceeded to push higher into the close, ending the day at 1685.

Clearly, trading the reversals within the 1676 to 1688 range was the way to go, and this may likely continue to be the case heading into Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC news.

The daily and 60-minute charts show the ES continues to develop within a clear trading range that has developed over the last three weeks. The apex of the pattern is 1680, which right in the zone where price may end up ahead of the afternoon’s Fed news. This coiled up range is going to spark the next major move in this chart, so watch the boundaries closely. The earliest sign of a breakout will occur through 1689 and 1670.

The current overnight high of 1687.75 forecasts a primary downside target of 1677.25, while the overnight low of 1681.50 projects a primary upside target of 1692.

Today’s scheduled economic news:

7:15am CT ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
7:30am CT Advance GDP q/q
7:30am CT Advance GDP Price Index q/q
7:30am CT Employment Cost Index q/q
8:45am CT Chicago PMI
9:30am CT Crude Oil Inventories
1:00pm CT FOMC Statement
1:00pm CT Federal Funds Rate

Here are the Key Levels and Targets for the current session:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini S&P 500 (ESU3)
Wed, Jul 31, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
1,708.25	Monthly R2	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
1,697.75	Monthly H5	14.00	1,687.75	1,681.50
1,693.00	LVN	AWR (10)	WH	WL
1,692.75	Fib Ext	28.25	1,688.50	1,676.50
1,688.50	PD High
1,685.00	SETTLE	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
1,683.50	cVPOC	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
1,677.50	HVN	1,699.00	1,680.75	1,704.75	1,667.31
1,677.25	PD Low	1,695.50	1,677.25	1,697.69	1,660.25
1,675.50	13PEMA	1,692.00	1,673.75
1,673.00	Fib Ext	1,688.50	1,670.25
1,672.00	LVN	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
1,670.00	HVN
1,666.25	LVN
1,664.25	nVPOC
1,662.00	LVN
1,656.00	HVN
1,652.25	LVN
1,648.75	Open Gap

 

E-Mini NASDAQ 100

In yesterday’s NQ report I wrote, “Up top shows firm resistance at 3087, which is where the NQ double-topped a couple of weeks ago. The current pre-market low of 3065.50 forecasts bull targets at 3085.50 and 3092.25, while the downside targets are 3066 and 3059.25.”

The E-Mini NASDAQ 100 futures opened the day with early strength this morning via a breakaway gap, and rallied to each of our bull targets for the day. After topping out at 3094.75, the NQ dropped sharply to 3070, where responsive buyers then pushed price back to 3085.75 on the close.

The NQ has trended surprisingly higher over the last week of trading, reaching new highs for the year at 3094.75. There is a major LVN at 3086, which could influence price early in the session. If price cannot maintain a stance above 3086, look for a push back toward 3075 to begin the day. If price cannot hold above 3070, we could see further downside movement toward 3067.75, 3061, and 3058.75. If 3070 holds, then a likely test of 3100 occurs above.

The current overnight high of 3088.75 forecasts a primary downside objective of 3067.75, while the current overnight low of 3079.25 forecasts a primary bull target of 3100.25.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: E-Mini NASDAQ 100 (NQU3)
Wed, Jul 31, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
3,119.00	Monthly R2	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
3,104.00	Fib Ext	28	3,088.75	3,079.25
3,096.00	Monthly H5	AWR (10)	WH	WL
3,094.75	PD High	67.25	3,094.75	3,056.75
3,086.00	LVN
3,085.75	SETTLE	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
3,082.50	VPOC	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
3,074.75	HVN	3,114.25	3,074.75	3,124.00	3,044.31
3,070.25	PD Low	3,107.25	3,067.75	3,107.19	3,027.50
3,069.50	nVPOC	3,100.25	3,060.75
3,067.00	LVN	3,093.25	3,053.75
3,061.00	Fib Ext	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
3,058.75	LVN
3,049.50	nVPOC
3,046.25	LVN
3,046.00	13PEMA
3,034.00	cVPOC
3,027.50	LVN
3,008.00	nVPOC

 

Crude Oil

In yesterday’s Crude report I wrote, “If price continues to hold below 104, we could see a very sharp move ahead upon a breakout from this range. Price should remain short term bearish until it can break and hold above 105.50…The primary bear target today is 103.11.”

Crude Oil opened RTH trading with an early rally to 103.95, but sellers piled on big and pushed price to a low on the day of 102.67, easily reaching our primary bear target on the day. As a matter of fact, the low of the day was just 4 ticks shy of our next ADR target of 102.63, which is the day’s full range target.

The 60-minute chart shows the channel mentioned in yesterday’s report. Crude Oil has dropped from the upper boundary of the channel through support at 104 and continues to hold beneath this key zone. Price didn’t quite reach the bottom of the channel, so there could be more downside price movement toward 102.07 to 102.20 ahead.

Watch price closely if it rises into 103.90 to 104.10, as a failure in this zone could offer a great sell opportunity back toward 102. A break and hold above 104.10 could signal a push toward the next resistance level at 105.35.

The current overnight high of 103.73 forecasts a primary bear objective of 102.28, while the current overnight low of 103.08 projects 104.54 as the day’s primary bull target.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Crude Oil (CLU3)
Wed, Jul 31, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
110.00	Yearly R1	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
108.48	LVN	1.94	103.73	103.08
107.71	Monthly R3	AWR (10)	WH	WL
107.35	LVN	4.32	105.37	102.67
106.25	LVN
105.96	cVPOC	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
105.52	nVPOC	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
104.86	HVN	105.51	102.76	106.99	102.13
104.80	nVPOC	105.02	102.28	105.91	101.05
104.44	Fib Ext	104.54	101.79
104.00	LVN	104.05	101.31
103.95	PD High	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
103.09	SETTLE
103.03	VPOC
102.69	LVN
102.67	PD Low
102.20	LVN
102.18	Fib Ext
102.07	34PEMA

 

Gold

In Friday’s Gold report I wrote, “If 1317.50 continues to hold, look to play to targets at 1330.30 and 1336.70. The overnight high of 1329.60 forecasts downside targets at 1316.80 and 1310.40.”

Gold futures opened RTH trading with early strength this morning, but put in the session’s high at 1328.30 before dropping right into support and our primary bear target of 1316.80. Once the range was in, Gold futures traded quietly into the close, further defining the large trading range that continues to develop in the 60-minute chart.

Gold has traded back and forth within the large trading range during pre-market trading, and continues to hold beneath the clear 1340 resistance level, which will be an important zone to watch for Wednesday’s trading. If price can break and hold above 1340, we could see a very nice advance toward the primary weekly target of 1358.70, with a shot at reaching the full range weekly target at 1372.90.

On the downside, a violation through the bottom of the range at 1315 will spark an important retest of the 1308 to 1310 zone of support. If this zone fails to hold, I think it’ll be a quick drop to the 1296 to 1300 zone.

Look for continued range development between 1315 and 1340 and look to play reversals within this range until a breakout occurs.

The current overnight high of 1338.40 projects a primary bear target of 1319.70, while the current overnight low of 1322 projects a primary bull objective of 1340.75.

Here are the targets for the current session and the week ahead:

PivotBoss Levels & Targets: Gold (GCQ3)
Wed, Jul 31, 2013
KEY LEVELS		ADR TARGETS
1,385.50	cVPOC	ADR (10)	ONH	ONL
1,371.40	Monthly R1	25	1,338.40	1,322.00
1,357.80	Monthly H4	AWR (10)	WH	WL
1,348.70	LVN	56.70	1,338.40	1,316.20
1,343.20	55PEMA
1,338.20	LVN	DAILY TARGETS		WEEKLY TARGETS
1,332.90	Fib Ext	BULL	BEAR	BULL	BEAR
1,329.50	cVPOC	1,353.25	1,325.90	1,372.90	1,295.88
1,328.30	PD High	1,347.00	1,319.65	1,358.73	1,281.70
1,323.70	SETTLE	1,340.75	1,313.40
1,323.10	VPOC	1,334.50	1,307.15
1,316.50	LVN	*BOLD indicates primary objectives
1,316.20	PD Low
1,315.70	34PEMA
1,311.60	Fib Ext
1,310.00	LVN
1,309.00	50% Fib
1,301.30	Monthly TC
1,299.00	LVN/62% Fib